Forecaster & Bid Price

With ONE by AOL: Mobile Self Serve, you have access to insights that will help you understand how your campaigns are delivering. During campaign setup, in the upper-right-hand corner under Campaign Forecast, you will see two vital indicators:

  • Delivery Probability: This is an indicator of how your campaign may perform based on many calculated factors including budget, campaign duration, targeting selections and more. Check the probability for delivery by seeing the bar in the upper-right-hand corner of the campaign wizard. The bar ranges in color from red (unlikely to deliver) to green (likely to deliver).
  • Proposed Bid: This is the minimum amount we recommend you bid to achieve your campaign goals. It is based on several different factors including your targeting selections, competition on our platform and budget.

If the Delivery Probability of your campaign is red, you may want to consider adjusting any of the criteria below:

  • Daily and total budget.
  • Operating System and Device Type targeting.
  • Geographical targeting.
  • Carrier targeting.
  • Handset targeting.
  • Ad dimension compared to Operating System and Device Type targeting.


If the Delivery Probability of your campaign is gray, this means the forecaster is currently unavailable for your campaign. This could be due to any of the following reasons listed below:

  • You selected Hyper Local targeting for your campaign. Since you are choosing geographical areas by polygons or centroids (circles), we are unable to accurately forecast the chances for your campaign's success at this time.

  • The properties that you selected do not deliver a probability at this time.
  • The forecaster is currently undergoing technical difficulties that should be resolved soon.

Each time you add targeting during the campaign creation process, you are modifying your intended audience. Based on your selections, we try to estimate the options that will deliver the most successful campaign possible.

Typically, the more narrow your targeting options, the higher your bid price needs to be to compete on our available mobile apps/sites. Conversely, broader targeting can handle a lower bid price. For example, a campaign set up to target limited device types in a small geographic area would require a higher bid price since there are fewer delivery opportunities available. Any campaign targeting the United States on all device types would yield many more delivery opportunities, and therefore could deliver with a lower bid price.

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